Kamala Harris is trailing Trump in Arizona, but all's not lost yet

useapen

2024-10-16 08:20:59 UTC

Arizona is a swing state. So why is former President Donald Trump
handily beating Vice President Kamala Harris in recent polls of Arizona
voters?

After decades as a perennial red state, consistently voting for
Republicans, Arizona turned purple in 2018, electing Kyrsten Sinema as
its first Democratic U.S. senator in 30 years. Then in 2020, the state
elected Democrat Mark Kelly to the Senate and went for Joe Biden over
Trump by just over 10,000 votes the first time a majority of
Arizonans voted for a Democrat for president since Bill Clinton in 1996
(Harry Truman was the last Democrat to win Arizona before Clinton, back
in 1948). Most recently, in 2022, Democrats took the majority of
statewide offices, including governor, secretary of state and attorney
general.

But a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll conducted
this month showed the former president up by a full 6 percentage points
(with a margin of error of 4 points). Is the state swinging back to
deep red? Probably not, but its complicated.

Arizonas Democratic Party is hemorrhaging voters, dropping from 1.38
million in 2020 to 1.19 million in 2024. Republicans dropped, too, from
1.5 million to 1.45 million in 2024, but the much larger drop in
Democratic voters is glaring, especially in a state now led by
Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs.

Arizonas unaffiliated voters have always been a large voting bloc, but
that group is growing. In Maricopa County the most populous county in
the state and the fourth-largest in the country Democrats voters fell
from 814,000 to 692,000 in 2024. Biden won Republican-heavy Maricopa
County in 2020, but Republicans voter advantage is much larger today.

Arizona is also missing strong statewide leadership despite having a
Democratic governor. Hobbs is missing in action when it comes to the
presidential and Senate races. She has not publicly appeared with
Harris or her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz despite numerous
Arizona visits. Other swing-state governors, like Josh Shapiro in
Pennsylvania, Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and Roy Cooper in North
Carolina, are pulling out all the stops for the Democratic ticket, but
Hobbs and her team are fumbling what should be a tactical advantage for
Harris in Arizona.

Arizona has the fourth-largest Hispanic population in the country,
making up one-third of the states population. Polls show Harris
receiving much less support from this vital voting bloc than Biden did
four years ago.

Border security and illegal immigration are top issues nationwide, but
Arizona is the only swing state where they are truly front and center.
The recent one-hour Senate debate between Ruben Gallego and Kari Lake
included no less than 30 minutes on immigration and border security
issues.

Arizona also has an initiative on the ballot this year that purports to
give law enforcement expanded powers to arrest immigrants who entered
the country illegally. The latest polls show that ballot initiative
favored by about 60% of Arizonans. The Biden/Harris administration is
seen by most Arizonans, including Democratic politicians, as failing
Arizona border towns and counties that are often overwhelmed with
asylum-seekers and those who crossed the border illegally. These issues
are personal to many Arizonans.

Arizona has a strong MAGA contingent, including some of the most
extreme members of Congress in Reps. Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar and Eli
Crane. It is the home of the money-raising MAGA activist group Turning
Point USA. And yet, despite this loud minority contingent, every Trump-
endorsed Republican candidate for statewide office lost in 2022, while
Republicans who did not go all in on Trump won their races for
treasurer, superintendent of public instruction and Corporation
Commission. Lake lost the governors race in 2020 (although she still
calls herself Arizonas rightful governor and has pending election
lawsuits to this day) and is greatly underperforming Trump in her
Senate race.

Thats why all hope is not lost for Harris winning Arizona in 2024
the state is truly purple. But she must overcome these significant
headwinds if she wants to be only the fourth Democrat to win Arizonas
presidential vote in the last 76 years.

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-lead-arizona-polls-
harris-purple-state-rcna175465